7 moves to shape ‘Future Ready Asean’

Seven takeaways from the Vientiane summit will lay the groundwork for boosting the incoming Asean chair’s profile and deliverability. These impetuses mean Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will have his work cut out in heralding a new era of “Future Ready Asean”.
Indeed, “Future Ready Asean” will be the new buzzword that will be vibrating throughout the region after the announcement of the Asean Vision 2045 in May of next year. Due to an extraordinarily volatile global landscape and pressing economic and social challenges on the home front, Asean is increasingly focused on strengthening centrality, integration, external relations, and overall preparedness.
First, Asean needs a unified voice on geopolitics. During the retreat last week, the Asean leaders underscored the need to maintain a unified stance on global issues, especially those escalating tensions between global powers. As the US-China rivalry intensifies, the regional bloc must speak with one voice to safeguard its interests and relevance.
The inclusion of Timor-Leste’s Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, head of the world’s youngest democracy, in the Asean retreat highlighted the bloc’s commitment to reinforcing its geopolitical posture on critical concerns, including the East-West divide.
At 57, Asean can no longer avoid addressing geopolitical issues, particularly those involving international rules-based sovereignty and regional peace. Historically, Asean has pursued a balancing strategy in its relations with major powers like the US and China. But the growing competition between both threatens to pull the region into a tug-of-war. The Asean leaders are clearheaded and agree that Asean must stay neutral and be more assertive to avoid being trapped in this rivalry.
Second, Asean’s expansion must admit Timor-Leste as the 11th member next year. Since its independence in 1999, this small nation has expressed a strong desire to join Asean. President Ramos-Horta said his country would ideally become a full-fledged Asean member next year.
Two days before the country was admitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Aug 30, Timor-Leste submitted a self-assessment to the Asean Secretariat. The diplomatic notes stated its readiness to accede immediately to the 66 Asean economic agreements listed in priority one. The other two comprise 48 agreements in priority two and 106 agreements in priority three, to which it will accede within two years and five years, respectively.
Some Asean members want to defer the admission until all criteria in the roadmap are fulfilled, including capacity-building and human resources. That was understandable as they were not happy with Dili’s instant emphasis on its democratic rather than its economic and other credentials to qualify for membership.
However, including Timor-Leste will help Asean expand and reinforce its unity, adding to the bloc’s political and economic strength.
Third, Asean must further strengthen multilateralism and economic integration. By 2030, the Asean Community will become the world’s fourth-largest economy. It is important that there should be deeper economic integration especially intra-trade among members. Between 2019-2023, intra-Asean trade averaged around 21.7%.
To strengthen supply chain resilience, Asean is upgrading its trade-in goods agreement to include digital trade, decarbonisation, and a circular economy. At present, the bloc’s single window has integrated the national single window of the member countries.
The capacity of regional micro, small, and medium enterprises will be further enhanced as they generate 85% of employment and 18% of national exports. Asean is coming out with the Asean Digital Economic Framework next year, which will be the world’s first such agreement.
In addition, the Asean-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free trade agreement, is expanding. Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, and Chile have applied to join the RCEP. Asean will soon complete the upgrade of Asean-China Free Trade Agreement 3.0. When they met recently in Vientiane, they could not conclude on the trade in goods and investment. They hope to round off the upgraded trade deal soon. India faces a similar challenge. Furthermore, Asean is in discussions with Canada on its first free trade agreement in North America.
Asean will continue to upgrade its various free trade agreements with dialogue partners. The bloc’s ability to adapt to the changing global economic environment will be crucial to sustaining its growth trajectory. Future-ready Asean needs multi-partnerships to improve domestic manufacturing capabilities and export higher-value products.
Fourth, Asean must engage and manage the US-China rivalry. No other bilateral ties impact Asean’s well-being more than US-China relations. Any fallout from their competition could reverberate throughout the region. When the two superpowers were on good terms, Asean benefitted greatly, as both are important markets and sources of digital and green technology, moving beyond infrastructure projects.
As such, the bloc must position itself as a bridge between the two powers. Thailand’s recent efforts in hosting the US-China meetings showed that Asean could play a constructive role in facilitating communication and easing existing tensions. One cardinal rule to which the Asean leaders consented is that Asean must resist taking sides in disputes, maintaining its strategic autonomy.
Fortunately, Asean’s ties with both superpowers remain strong. Each member has its channels for engaging with the US and China, which is why their leaders consistently attend Asean’s annual summits.
Fifth, Asean must continue its proactive engagement with Myanmar. The bloc’s ultimate aim is to help the Myanmar stakeholders achieve peace and stability. It is imperative that Asean stays engaged with all conflicting parties, including dialogue partners. Of late, the State Administration Council has shown a willingness to negotiate with all resistance groups.
At the Vientiane summits, strong consensus has been made on the increasing role of the Asean Coordinating Center for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Management (AHA Center) as well as the special envoys for Myanmar. The Five-Point Consensus (5PC) remains the central framework for restoring peace and stability in Myanmar, but progress has been slow since its inception in February 2021.
The Asean leaders also supported Thailand’s initiative to have the so-called Asean Troika meeting in Bangkok in mid-December to further deliberate on humanitarian assistance plans and confidence building in Myanmar. This meeting will include foreign ministers from past, present, and future Asean chairs, as well as concerned dialogue partners with direct stakes in Myanmar’s stability. Specialist UN agencies, such as the World Food Programme, Unicef, and the World Health Organization, will also get involved.
Sixth, Asean has its vision for 2045 as a long-term roadmap. The bloc has completed its long-term vision, encapsulated in the Asean Community’s Vision 2045. This vision outlines the bloc’s shared future for the next 20 years. All the action plans in the three pillars — Political-Security Community, Economic Community, and Socio-Cultural Community will be completed in the first quarter of next year, and Malaysia will launch the vision 2045 and its strategic plan at the 46th summit in May.
Next year also marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Asean Community, which was also launched in Malaysia.
Seventh, the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) is the bedrock of regional architecture. It promotes a peaceful, open, and rules-based region, ensuring Asean’s role as a key player in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific. Since its announcement in 2019, Asean has been working hard to maintain its central role in the region’s security. Regardless of its paucity, the AOIP will help Asean meet challenges.
The AOIP offers a way for Asean to avoid taking sides while still engaging with important partners like Japan, India, and Australia. These countries also have their Indo-Pacific strategies and they are aligned with the AOIP.
Furthermore, Asean has expanded its comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP) to include South Korea this year and New Zealand next year as the seventh CSP. The bloc will continue to link up with key strategic partners who have their Indo-Pacific frameworks, ensuring that Southeast Asia does not become a pawn in the superpowers’ geopolitical struggle.
These seven takeaways provide critical stepping stones for Asean’s incoming chair. In addition, Mr Anwar minced no words in reiterating that Malaysia, as the Asean chair, will be active in engaging dialogue partners and other key regional players to promote Asean’s voice and profile. During the handover ceremony, he said the chair will have dialogue and collaboration to champion an open, inclusive, and rule-based regional architecture.
To top it all, Malaysia has already identified four strategic thrusts for the chair’s agenda namely enhancing trade and investment between Asean members; integrating and connecting economies; forging an inclusive and sustainable future, and transforming the digital future.
Building on the results of the Vientiane summits together with Mr Anwar’s stewardship and the new chair’s strategic thrusts, Malaysia can guide the Asean’s efforts to address pressing regional challenges while maintaining its centrality and further strengthening regional peace, stability, and prosperity.